There is a moment, when you hold a vintage King Seiko 45KS in your palm and examine its sharp, faceted case, that you realize you are holding more than a watch. You are holding a piece of horological history that offers exceptional value for money—often found on the secondary market for €900–1,500 [citation:2]. Yet, at the very same time, the Swiss watch industry is grappling with a very different kind of value calculation: the impact of US tariffs that have sent shockwaves through the world's most prestigious watchmaking nation. This is the paradox of 2026: while collectors can find incredible value in vintage timepieces, the industry that produces luxury watches is facing unprecedented challenges that could reshape the market for years to come.

The Vintage Value Proposition: Why the King Seiko 45KS Matters

The King Seiko 45KS, produced between 1968 and 1974, represents a zenith for the brand [citation:2]. It is powered by the manual-winding caliber 4500, a 36,000vph hi-beat movement that was the last hand-built King Seiko caliber [citation:2]. The case design, with its sharp angles and facets, reflects Taro Tanaka's "Grammar of Design" philosophy—a philosophy that would later define Grand Seiko. At just 36mm wide and 41mm long, the 45KS offers proportions that feel both vintage and surprisingly contemporary [citation:2].

What makes the 45KS so compelling is the value it represents. You can acquire a piece of horological history—complete with a gold medallion on the caseback, a clean, uncluttered dial, and a high-beat movement—for roughly a third of the price of a new King Seiko [citation:2]. This is a watch that exemplifies a golden era for Seiko, a time when the brand was producing absolute classics that now rival the best of Swiss watchmaking. The 45KS is a reminder that value in watch collecting is not always about brand prestige or contemporary hype; sometimes, it is about recognizing quality where others have overlooked it.

This dedication to precision and craftsmanship is a hallmark of a great Watch Factory, but it stands in stark contrast to the challenges facing some Watch Factories today, where geopolitical pressures have created uncertainty. In such times, the pursuit of a Best Custom Watch becomes an even more personal statement of value.

The Tariff Shock: How 39% Duties Shook Swiss Watchmaking

While vintage enthusiasts find bargains, the Swiss watch industry has been rocked by the introduction of US tariffs. In August 2025, President Donald Trump imposed tariffs of up to 39% on imports from Switzerland—the highest rate applied to any developed economy [citation:1][citation:9]. This was a "severe blow" to an industry that exports approximately $5.4 billion worth of watches to the US annually, representing nearly 17% of total watch export value [citation:1][citation:9].

The impact was immediate and severe. Swiss watch exports to the US fell 56% in April 2026, a stark correction after a massive surge in shipments in 2025 as brands rushed to get ahead of the tariffs [citation:3][citation:7]. The industry was facing a perfect storm: tariffs compounded sluggish demand from China, soaring gold prices, and a strong Swiss franc that made exports more expensive [citation:5][citation:9]. In the watchmaking towns of La Chaux-de-Fonds and Le Locle, workshops that were once bustling with activity were reduced to just a couple of people, with shutters closed for part of the week [citation:5].

Breitling CEO Georges Kern noted that "I can't see Switzerland living with a 39% tariff rate," while others, like Nick Hayek of Swatch Group, took a more confrontational stance, suggesting that Switzerland retaliate by slapping a 39% tax on gold exported to the US [citation:1]. The industry was scrambling for strategies: should prices be raised in the US? Should costs be shared with distributors? Or should prices be increased globally to keep the US market competitive? [citation:1]

In a rare show of unity, some of Switzerland's most powerful business figures, including Rolex CEO Jean-Frederic Dufour and Richemont Chairman Johann Rupert, intervened directly with the Trump administration [citation:5][citation:12]. Their efforts, combined with ongoing negotiations, led to the tariff being retroactively reduced from 39% to 15% in November 2025 [citation:5]. Yet, even that reduction is still well above historical levels, and the uncertainty persists [citation:12].

Two Opposing Views: The Collector's Dilemma in a Tariff-Rocked World

The twin narratives of vintage value and tariff volatility have sparked sharply different perspectives among collectors and industry observers:

Viewpoint A (The Value Investor): "The vintage market is a safe haven. Watches like the King Seiko 45KS offer tangible quality at a fraction of the cost of new pieces. While Swiss brands grapple with tariffs and price increases, the secondary market remains relatively insulated. Collectors should focus on well-made vintage pieces from Japan and other non-Swiss origins, as they offer the best value proposition in an uncertain market."

Viewpoint B (The Pragmatist): "The tariffs will eventually be resolved, but they highlight a structural weakness in the Swiss industry. The US is too important a market to risk alienating. Brands will adapt—some by adjusting pricing, others by diversifying their supply chains. The long-term impact will be a more resilient industry, but in the short term, collectors should brace for higher prices on new Swiss watches, which will only make vintage pieces more attractive."

Viewpoint C (The Skeptic): "This is all temporary noise. The Swiss watch industry has survived wars, economic depressions, and the quartz crisis. Tariffs are a short-term disruption, not a structural shift. The King Seiko 45KS is a great watch, but it's also a niche interest. The real value lies in understanding the market dynamics and being patient. When the tariff uncertainty resolves, the industry will return to growth."

The Verdict: A Time of Transition and Opportunity

As the industry navigates the choppy waters of trade policy, the collector is left with a profound question: how do we value a watch? The vintage market, exemplified by the King Seiko 45KS, proves that exceptional quality and design can be acquired for a fraction of the cost of modern pieces. Meanwhile, the Swiss industry's struggles underscore the fragility of the luxury market and the impact of geopolitical forces on prices and availability.

The 45KS is a testament to a time when Seiko was at its peak, producing hi-beat movements and beautifully designed cases that stand alongside the best of Swiss watchmaking. It is a reminder that value is not always about brand prestige, but about recognizing quality, craftsmanship, and history. For the collector who is willing to look beyond the hype, there is immense value to be found in vintage watches.

The lingering question—whether the tariffs will fundamentally change the dynamics of the luxury watch market—remains unanswered. But for now, one thing is clear: the vintage market offers an oasis of value in a turbulent landscape. The King Seiko 45KS is a shining example of that enduring truth.

One final thought: a great watch does not need to be Swiss to be exceptional. The 45KS proves that the Japanese watchmaking tradition, with its own philosophy of precision and design, is capable of producing timeless classics that deserve a place in any collection.

Featured image: A vintage King Seiko 45KS in excellent condition, showcasing the sharp case design and clean dial.